Internet reaches its limits, 18 months and then IPv6

Andre

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Currently the internet is built around the Internet Protocol Addressing Scheme version 4 (IPv4), which has around four billion addresses -- and they're fast running out.

Four billion no doubt seemed a huge amount when the system was designed in the 1970s, but few then could have predicted how the internet would take off, and how many billions more connections would be needed.

However, there is a replacement, IPv6, which has trillions more addresses available and ready to go. The problem is that businesses are proving slow to adapt their technology to IPv6, leaving experts fearful that we might be heading for a crunch within 18 months.

"My impression is that while awareness of the issue is quite high, a lot of businesses are sitting on the fence," said Karrenberg. "Many small businesses are waiting to see what the early adopters do; how they handle things.

"My suspicion is too many are leaving it too late."

This growing problem has been compounded in recent years as the amount of hardware needing an internet connection has risen enormously, thanks largely to the popularity of smart phones, like Apple's iPhone and other mobile devices, and the rapid pace of technological development in countries like China and India.

"All sorts of devices need to access the internet now, from smartphones and games consoles, to cars," says Karrenberg.

"But still only a quarter of European businesses are using IPV6 -- the rest should be making this a priority."

All the big players in the internet, such as Google, and YouTube, are fully IPV6 enabled, but many others have yet to commit.

"If they keep on lagging behind then the internet will not be able to grow in the way it has been; the curve will flatten out," said Karrenberg.

"Although it's still unclear what kind of plateau we will see, certainly we could see impeded or seriously curtailed growth."

None of this is what businesses need to hear as they struggle out of a serious recession, but there is still time to act.

"The window left to invest is still relatively large," said Karrenberg.

"But businesses should remember that the earlier they act, the less they will pay. The more they neglect this issue, the higher premiums people can expect to be charged."

According to Karrenberg, the necessary costs can be met as part of the routine process of upgrading technology. "It is possible to deal with these issues through the usual round of investment in hard and soft technology," he said.

"It's just a question of what tactics people follow as they make their choices. "Businesses need to future-proof their decisions and this issue needs to be on every CTO's radar."

In addition, while IPv4 and IPv6 are designed to work together, there have been reports of teething troubles, and businesses that leave their switch-over too late may find glitches compound their problems.

Business leaders should also remember that this isn't only an issue for those producing devices needing a connection or selling broadband services. Content providers also need to ensure their services are IPv6-ready, otherwise they will exclude potential clients connecting using the new protocols.

"They will lose their customers -- the eyeballs -- who may not be able to connect," said Karrenberg.

It's a classic paradox of the internet era -- while the technology exists to leap frog the problem, human nature is naturally cautious and some businesses are reluctant to do what they know they need to do, whether due to tightened budgets or simple inertia.

"I'm certainly not optimistic this will all work out for everyone," said Karrenberg.

"I suppose I'm cautiously pessimistic. My fear is that a significant number of businesses will be left in a position where they have to scramble to catch up.
"People know there is a problem, but it's converting that knowledge into action plans, business plans, which is so important."



http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/05/27/internet.crunch.2012

I'm quite sure the Internet will be half braindead for the first week when IPv4 reaches its limits. It will be cool though since most of our every-day used software will be up to date (MSN, FB, Twitter, Orkut, YouTube, etc) but it will be much of a problem for other sites.
 

Impulse

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Already know about this porblem for a while now.
Mostly because I've been downloading through IPv6 with newsgroups (free :tongue:)
Will indeed be interesting. A "big" crunch. Kinda don't want it, but I'm also exited for it in a weird way
 

MiRc34

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Impulse said:
Kinda don't want it, but I'm also exited for it in a weird way
Lmao, the same I'm feeling about the end of the world in 2012 :troll:
 

Andre

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Nimphioüs said:
I didn't even know there was a limit
That makes sense.

IPs range from 0.0.0.0 to 255.255.255.255 so it makes sense that we have to calculate:
255*255*255*255 = 4228250625
Then subtract some private IP ranges 10.0.0.0 - 10.255.255.255 (16777216 addresses), 172.16.0.0 - 172.31.255.255 (1048576 addresses), 192.168.0.0 - 192.168.255.255 (65536 addresses).
The remaining are becoming used.
 
C

CreonSiper

Guest
I knew this was gonna happen 3 years ago when i tried to set an IP address on my network adapter "Range can only be from 0 to 255"

When i was 12 i though "oh my god, only 255 ranges x4? We're gonna run out some day"

I bet this will cause problems worldwide, if im not confused i think your modem has to be IPV6 enabled and compatible with the protocol aswell as the server it's geting data from.

MASS amounts of switchovers aren't gonna be affordable, efficient nor fast.

I can guarantee some moron retailers are gonna go bug all the ISP company's to rise their price to keep your internet..

I can see the ad already.. "Would you like IPV6 internet? Only $128.99 a month! ORDER NOW!"

Internet will be unavailable for atleast a day if not more for an average person.


Just hopefully the morons who decided to design IPV6 have added a higher range this time.


I thought we were gonna run out in 2012, i guess it's sooner since more people order internet every day.


But hell, whats to consider is;

-Those that don't pay their ISP bill get their IP allocated to a person that signs up or a person that renewed their service after suspension.

The rate of people signing up is higher than those of the people that are quitting the internet.
 

ThePro

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Well, the only way to use IPv4 would be sharing ip's...

This is already done with an isp in italy, but the other guy gets banned from somewhere and the ban also affects you.

We're not even close to having IPv6 here in argentina.
 

ev0lution

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The thing is, while this is a kind of "major" problem, with any decent amount of planning and preparation, nothing will happen.
It's not like Google will blow up, and Microsoft will start eating your children. All it means is that the number of new IPv4 addresses will decrease up until there are simply none left.
It's estimated that in the last few months before IPv4 depletion, the remaining IP addresses will significantly rise in price. So what do you do? Pay an extraordinary amount, or switch to IPv6. It's really that simple.
I'd guess that most of the big internet companies already have IPv6 addresses, and most of the worldwide internet registries (APNIC, ARIN, etc.) are trying to push the move to IPv6 well before IPv4 exhaustion.
For the rest of us, I guess it's just forgetting xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx in favour of xxxx:xxxx:xxxx:xxxx:xxxx:xxxx:xxxx:xxxx.... great.
 

Andre

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I can tell you one thing for sure... No more remembering IP addresses!
 

Impulse

LozL
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Just thought of the fact that the banned ips most likely won't work any more I guess...
That will suck for loads of servers I think. Hackers will overload gameservers I think?
 

Andre

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No server has a ban list with thousands of hackers unless it is a shared one carried by some sort of a system or so. When a cheater comes, the admin bans him. I don't think even extra adminpower is necessary for that really.
Besides I have this idea floating on my mind that providers like ARIN, RIPE, etc will have a way to backtrace IPv6 -> IPv4 for some time to see the historically stored IP address :thinking: Wouldn't be hard if ISPs went along.
 

ThePro

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Well, i'm sure they will make something to make IPv6 backward compatible, or make IPv7 which is backward compatible to IPv4 or smth
 

ev0lution

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ThePro said:
Well, i'm sure they will make something to make IPv6 backward compatible, or make IPv7 which is backward compatible to IPv4 or smth
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv6 said:
Hybrid dual-stack IPv6/IPv4 implementations typically support a special class of addresses, the IPv4-mapped addresses. This address type has its first 80 bits set to zero and the next 16 set to one while its last 32 bits are filled with the IPv4 address. These addresses are commonly represented in the standard IPv6 format, but having the last 32 bits written in the customary dot-decimal notation of IPv4; for example, ::ffff:192.0.2.128 is the IPv4-mapped IPv6 address for IPv4 address 192.0.2.128.
 
C

CreonSiper

Guest
If im not mistaken, won't servers have to upgrade too?

God damn, that's gonna cost me a fortune O_O

IPV6 wont be able to communicate with my IPV4 servers, making it compatible for both.. great!

[me=FrostBytez]pulls out his wallet[/me]
 
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